YES!!! There’s lots of snow coming up for the Alps. There is a lot, and we mean a lot, of snow on its way (check our snow maps) and the long wait was not in vain. It seems that after 24 (!) days without precipitation we can get ready for some serious snowfall. The current maps are even more positive than the ones on Friday morning. We have to wait for another six days before the snow will actually come down, but there’s no doubt that it will fall.
Pre-alert #PA2
It is too early to point out specific areas and remember that there is almost no snow in the Alps at the moment. The snow that came down in the middle of October disappeared everywhere except for the north faces above 2200 meters. If you go out next week, please remember this. There’s no such thing as a base in most resorts.
The three positive points are getting more positive
- It’s getting colder
- The NAO index is getting less positive
- The jetstream is moving south
It’s getting colder: CHECK!
It is definitely getting colder. Not only the ensembles (check out Chamonix) show a huge drop in temperature (10-15 degrees drop) starting this weekend, our own weather model shows this for Chamonix as well. Six days in the future normally brings some uncertainties, but over 30 models and the European weather model confirm this trend, so we can say that redemption is pretty close. It will get colder. And even better, it will be even colder than we expected last week.
The NAO index is getting less positive: CHECK!
The NAO index is getting less positive and that means that storm depressions can reach the Alps again. That endless high pressure system is getting weaker and the countdown has started. Yes, the NAO index is getting less positive and you can check that out right here.
The jet stream is moving south: CHECK!
The jet stream isn’t going south that fast, but she’ll find her way south (eventually south of the Alps). The Alps have to deal with cold polair air and storm depressions are coming in from the northwest. Check out the map below. The purple line is the jet stream. We can expect lots of snow!
Details, details, details!!
It’s too early for details, but the scenario will go like this: A depression will travel south towards the North Sea and at the same time a high pressure area is forming on the Atlantic Ocean. Between these two core pressure areas a northwesterly current is formed (also called ‘the slide’ that is used by depressions to reach the Alps) and cold air is transported to the south.
This cold air hits the warm air in the Alps, and the result: Jackpot! Intense precipitation in the northwest of the Alps (and maybe even a Genoa-low). More details tomorrow, but winter is coming!
Stay stoked
Morris