What a snowstorm! And this is just the beginning! In the coming days, even more snow is expected due to strong stau against the Northern Alps. The snowline is still quite low as well.
50 to 80cm already fallen
Above, you can see the Snowgrid analysis from Geosphere Austria, which gives a good indication of what has already fallen over the past 24 hours. In the Hohe Tauern, Dachstein, and further east, more than 50 centimeters of snow (purple/pink shades) has already dropped. The Julian Alps also received a big dump, although here with a higher snowline.
In Austria, however, the snowline is much lower in many areas. In the eastern regions, some webcams are already showing white landscapes from as low as 500 meters. Most places are seeing significant snowfall starting from 1000-1200 meters. And with more snow expected in the coming days, the snowline will remain low.
And there’s even more snow on the way! Over the next 24 hours, heavy snowfall is expected along the entire northern side of Austria due to this weather setup with a so-called Vb (Five-b) low-pressure system. This system moves from the Gulf of Genoa towards the northeast. On the western flank of this low, moist air collides with polar air and gets pushed against the Northern Alps, resulting in massive snowfall and a low snowline.
By tomorrow afternoon, the intensity will decrease from the west. West of Innsbruck, conditions will clear up by Saturday evening, but east of it, snow will continue to fall until Sunday morning. On Sunday evening, snowfall will ramp up again from the northeast. Monday will also see more snow as the northeastern flow keeps pushing moisture against the northern Austrian Alps, though the snowline will rise to around 1500 meters.
All in all, another 1 to 2 meters of snow could fall in the higher regions. The snowfall will be accompanied by stormy winds from the north, with gusts reaching up to 150 km/h and more at the peaks of the Eastern Alps. The strongest winds will hit during the night from Saturday to Sunday. Even though it’s only September and the first significant snowfall, the combination of fresh snow and strong winds will greatly increase the avalanche danger at higher altitudes.
Especially with the rising snowline starting Sunday, the risk of flooding in regions like Lower Austria is set to increase significantly. Days of heavy rainfall with exceptional total amounts and saturated soils could lead to widespread flooding. This is also possible in the Czech Republic, parts of Slovakia, and Poland, with the potential for major flooding. It’s an exceptionally critical situation, as rainfall amounts of 200-300mm or more (as shown by models like ICON-EU above) are very rare for these regions in such a short period of time.
Back to Normal Temperatures
Looking at this morning’s GFS ensemble, we can see that starting Tuesday, things will dry up and temperatures will return to normal for this time of year. This means that snow below 2000 - 2500 meters will melt away relatively quickly. However, above that altitude, the total accumulations are so large that it will take a bit longer for it all to disappear. Just remember, it’s mid-September. A few föhn periods in October — which is typically a month with frequent föhn events — could cause much of the snow in the high mountains to melt again.
But for now… let’s enjoy this big snowfall! Who’s sending in the first live powder images?