Cooldown with some snow on Tuesday, long term remains interesting

As Henri already indicated in the previous forecast, the dominance of high-pressure areas is coming to an end, making way for some Alpine weather action. Between a powerful high-pressure area near Ireland and another one over Russia, a weak disturbance will move from the North Sea over the BeNeLux and France to Spain in the coming days. This will bring colder air at higher altitudes, causing the temperature at 1500 meters to temporarily drop to around freezing. During the nights, forst can also occur at lower altitutes.

On Tuesday, the cold front associated with the disturbance will move over the Alps from the north. This will result in a snow cover of 5 to 15 cm in many places above circa 1300 meters. In Austria, the regions east of Tyrol will likely miss out on any precipitation.

Most snow likely in Piemonte and Aosta

Earlier, it seemed that the French Alps would take the main prize, but today the weather models shift the precipitation peak to the east. The path the disturbance follows can still change, causing other parts of the Southern and Western Alps to possibly receive more snow. However, looking at the latest output, the most uplift occurs in Aosta and Piemonte, around and east of the French border. The most moisture is available in this area because air is drawn in from the Mediterranean on the eastern flank of the disturbance. It probably won’t be a real dump, but 20 to 30 centimeters above 1300 meters is quite possible regionally.

Snow in Spain on Wednesday and Thursday

When the disturbance arrives over Spain on Wednesday, it will already be dry and calm in the Alps with a freezing level around 2000 meters. In Spain, areas with showery rain are present, bringing 10 to 30 centimeters of snow to most mountain ranges above 1500 meters. In southern Spain, the precipitation is more active; the Sierra Nevada could get up to 40 centimeters.

Calm and dry days in the Alps

Back to the Alps, where a new high-pressure ridge will put a cap on the atmosphere. From Wednesday to Saturday, it will remain dry and variably cloudy. During clear spells it can freeze at night, but during the day it will be quite mild with 5 to 10 degrees at 1500 meters and a freezing level that can rise to 3000 meters, especially in the Western Alps. In low valleys where low clouds linger, it will remain much chillier.

Cold from the northwest?

For the long term, all eyes are on a high-pressure ridge forming over the Atlantic and extending all the way to Greenland. This kind of setup can lead to unsettled and cold weather in Europe with a low snow line and dumps on the north and west sides of the Alps. However, the high-pressure ridge must hold long enough for this to happen and the outflow of cold air must not be blocked by low pressure forming in the wrong areas. If we look at the ensembles for Innsbruck, we can conclude they are hopeful, with precipitation increasing from November 18. However, the temperature forecast is all over the place. Whether we will get deep into the cold air with snow down to the valleys remains to be seen.