PA#1: 20 to 50 centimeters on a large scale

Two low-pressure systems are moving onto the continent today and tomorrow, significantly impacting the weather in the Alps. The weather models have been very erratic in recent days, making it difficult to provide an accurate snow forecast. Ultimately, the precipitation amounts have been adjusted downwards, but the snow will affect more regions in the Alps. Time for the first Powder Alert!

In this forecast:

• Snow today and tomorrow, but also rain below 1600-2100 meters
• From Saturday evening, precipitation shifts to the southern side
• How much snow will fall in other mountain ranges?
• A few snow showers on Monday, then more stable and drier
• Where to go?

High snow line today, especially in the Western Alps

This morning, many weather stations along the main ridge of the French and Swiss Alps recorded 15 to 25 mm of 24-hour precipitation. In Vorarlberg, 5 to 10 mm fell. The air was quite mild, with fresh snow only falling above 1600 to 2100 meters (from east to west), amounting to 5-25 centimeters. A few more mm/cm may be added today, but the activity is gradually decreasing. The depression causing severe gales in the Netherlands and Germany this morning will move over the Czech Republic in a weakened form during the evening. As a result, it will snow for some time east of Salzburg, around and north of the main ridge. The air is less mild here; 10-20 cm could easily accumulate above 1000 meters.

Lots of action in the atmosphere on Saturday with a dropping snow line

On Saturday, a new depression will arrive over the Benelux, and a Genoa depression will form. Under the influence of these depressions, it will snow extensively in the French and Swiss Alps and probably also in the eastern Italian Alps. The snow line will initially be between 1400 and 1800 meters but will drop to the valleys in the afternoon and evening. Around that time, Austria will also experience snow again, with the Arlberg region having the best chances for good accumulation. Because the mentioned Genoa low follows a fairly southern course, it will not lead to a true südstau everywhere in the Southern Alps. The further south, the better seems to be the motto; the southern areas in the Dolomites are likely to get 20 to 30 cm.

Precipitation mainly on the southern side on Sunday, thanks to Genoa low

Saturday night and Sunday morning, there will be intense precipitation in a strip from southern Piedmont to the southern Dolomites, with a chance of another 20 to 30 cm. These calculations should be taken with a grain of salt; the precipitation distribution with a Genoa low is difficult to predict. Keep an eye on our forecasts in the coming days. Elsewhere in the Alps, there may still be some snow on Sunday, but not in large quantities. The snow line will be between 600 and 1200 meters.

A few more snow showers on Monday, then stabilization

On Monday, low-pressure systems will be less active, but a few snow showers will still fall across the Alps. It will also freeze during the day above 600-1000 meters. In the French Alps, it will likely remain dry and temporarily milder, with a frost line around 1400 meters. The stabilization that has already started in France will continue everywhere on Tuesday and Wednesday. It will be variably cloudy with little to no precipitation. Moreover, it will remain quite cold with moderate to severe frost in the inner Alpine regions at night and continuous frost above about 1000 meters during the day. High-pressure systems are also expected to remain dominant later next week; precipitation may return to the French Alps on Friday. It will warm up slightly on Thursday, with the freezing level rising to 1200-1500 meters.

What’s happening in other mountain ranges?

Interesting weather is not limited to the Alps. Snow may also fall in the northern Apennines (20 to 50 cm) and the northern Dinaric Alps (Slovenia and Croatia, 10-30 cm) over the weekend. The main ridge and northern side of the Pyrenees can expect a decent dump of 30 to 60 cm. Additionally, it will turn white in the Czech highlands and the French Central Massif, where 10 to 30 cm will fall.

Where and when to go?

• Snow and wind will play a big role on Saturday, but from Sunday onwards, a safe bet are the areas that already have a base. This is mainly the case in a strip around and west of the main ridge from France through Switzerland to Vorarlberg, above 1600-2000 meters. Strong wind and snow showers may still occur on Sunday and Monday, so it’s best to stick to the higher tree runs at first, also taking into account the avalanche danger.
• The Pyrenees: skiing will likely be possible for the first time after the weekend, but resorts will still be closed at first, so there may not yet be any lifts running. Choose areas with the highest snow totals (we will update you on this in the coming days) as there is no base yet. Also, take into account strong winds and avalanche dangers which will peak on Sunday and Monday, so it may be wise to wait until the weather has stabilized mid next week.
• Good opportunities may also arise after the weekend in the Southern Alps, particularly the southern parts of Piedmont and the southern Dolomites (although there is hardly any base here yet).

Avalanche updates for Alpine countries are active again

Since this week, daily avalanche updates and blogs are being issued again in all Alpine countries, collected on the Lawine.report website. Currently, there is already a level 3 warning along the main ridge in Switzerland, and the avalanche danger will only increase in the coming days.