After a beautiful week with snow and then sun, the weather is becoming more changeable in the Alps. Today brings some snow in the French Alps and Sunday it’s Austria’s turn. We are also looking ahead to the Christmas period.
Refresher with 5 to 20 cm in the French Alps from 1400 meters
Today and tomorrow, the high-pressure area that provided sun and cold nights will retreat to Eastern Europe. A new high will move via France to Southern Europe after the weekend, bringing milder weather. But before that happens, some areas will still see snowfall. Today, there is still plenty of sun in Austria and the Southern Alps. The French Alps are already shrouded in clouds, and in the Alpes-Maritimes, a few centimeters have fallen above 1200 meters. This region remains susceptible to snow showers today, but more than 10 cm is unlikely. During the night and Saturday morning, some snow may also fall in the rest of the French Alps, about 5 to 20 cm. According to weather models, the focus this time is not around the main ridge but in the western French areas such as Devoluy, Villard de Lans, Alpe du Grand Serre, Chamrousse, and the Chartreuse massif. The snow line hovers around 1400 meters. In the rest of the Alps, it will remain dry on Saturday, but with more clouds. It is slightly wintry with frost above approximately 1500 meters.
5 to 20 cm for the Northern Alps on Sunday
During the night to Sunday, a bubble of more humid air will move south along the western flank of the new high-pressure area. Despite the rapidly rising air pressure, orographic lift seems likely to produce a decent layer of snow. The GFS weather model predicts 10-15 cm by Monday afternoon on the northern side of the Swiss main ridge and in Vorarlberg, and 10-20 cm along the mountains bordering Germany and in a strip from Kitzbühel and Steinplatte to Hochkar in Lower Austria (the eastern and northeastern Austrian Alps). In the rest of Austria and Switzerland, only a few centimeters will fall, and the Southern Alps will remain dry once again. The snow line will be in the valleys on Sunday and rises to 1500 meters by Monday morning. Monday will already be sunny in most regions, and those clearings will also reach Austria by the afternoon.
Quickly becoming changeable again, snow chances on Thursday and Friday
The calm won’t last long, as cloud cover will increase from the west on Tuesday with the approach of depressions over the Atlantic and the British Isles. Wednesday will be mostly gray and much milder with temperatures between 5 and 10 degrees at 1500 meters. This occurs in the warm sector of a depression that will be over Scandinavia on Thursday and Friday. Its fronts will reach the Western Alps on Thursday with intense precipitation and a high snow line around 1800 meters. On Thursday evening, the cold front will pass, and the snow line will drop to the valleys. Snowfall will spread over much of the main ridge and Northern Alps. Take this timing with a grain of salt, as it is still far off. The amount of snow that will fall is also uncertain, but as an indication based on the major weather models, we can say 15 to 30 cm in the Western Alps and Vorarlberg above 1800 meters and 10-20 cm between 1200 and 1800 meters. GFS also predicts snow in the Dolomites, but the European model does not agree with that. Henri and I are closely monitoring the situation and will keep you updated in the upcoming forecasts.
Will there be a Christmas thaw?
Around Christmas, the Alps often experience mild weather and rain at high altitudes. Of course, nothing is certain yet, but the ensemble forecasts (such as GFS for Innsbruck above) suggest few mild options for Christmas this year. In fact, most solutions are cold or fairly cold with frequent snow signals. Let’s hope this trend continues!
