The cold front that refreshed the base in the northern and western regions of the Alps has left, making way for dry and cold weather. However, this won’t last long as high clouds from the next disturbance will move into France this afternoon. This disturbance will bring much milder air on Sunday. The weather will remain very changeable in the coming week, and below 2000 meters, we won’t escape a few phases of rain.
Fresh snow, short weather-break
A strong northwesterly flow is blowing cold air over Western and Central Europe today. The cold front left 10 to 30 centimeters of fresh snow on the northern and western edges of the Alps, down to the valleys. Less snow fell in the inner Alpine regions and the Southern French Alps, and the entire Southern Alps remained almost dry. A ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean will split off and move over the Alps to the Balkans in the coming days. This will provide a brief stabilization, keeping it dry with sunny periods until Saturday morning. In the polar air, it will freeze during the day down to the valleys, with temperatures at 1500 meters ranging from -7°C in the Northern Alps to -2°C in the south and west.
Lots of snow in the Balkans
In the western Pyrenees, some precipitation will fall today, with the snow line rising to 2200 meters. Serious snowfall is expected today and Saturday morning in the Balkans. There is already above-average snow, and an additional 30 to 50 cm is expected above 500 meters in the Dinaric Alps (from Croatia to Macedonia).
Depression Train
Around January 12 or 13, weather models predict stabilization due to a new powerful high over Europe. Before that, we will see an active and fairly southern west circulation next week, sending multiple low-pressure systems towards the Alps. This is all driven by a steering low-pressure system over Scandinavia, which is also well-developed in the upper atmosphere, causing cold and snow there.
Grazing shot and warmer air over the weekend
Between Saturday evening and Sunday morning, precipitation from a warm front will scrape the Western and Northwestern Alps. The GFS model predicts about 20 mm of precipitation in a strip from the Northern French Alps through Central Switzerland to Vorarlberg, mostly falling as rain below 1500 to 2000 meters. In the eastern Alps (e.g., around Salzburg), the snow line will initially be just below 1500 meters, but less precipitation is expected here, probably a maximum of 10 mm/cm. The ECMWF model predicts the disturbance slightly further north, resulting in no more than 10-15 cm of snow anywhere, with rain reaching significant altitudes. By Sunday, it will be dry everywhere, with a mild and moist southwesterly flow causing thawing conditions below 1600 meters in the Southern Alps and 2200 meters in the Western and Northern Alps, where a strong föhn wind will blow.
Influence of Genoa low on Monday and Tuesday
On Monday, a deep depression will be over the North Sea, forming a secondary disturbance that will quickly move from France to Northern Germany. Later on Monday, a Genoa low will form, potentially bringing precipitation to the southern Alps for the first time in a long while. It will be cloudy everywhere, and especially in the afternoon and evening, the Western and Southern Alps will experience precipitation. During the night and Tuesday, the precipitation will likely spread over a large part of the Italian, Swiss, and Austrian Alps, with the focus south of the main ridge this time. The initial situation is quite mild, so rain will fall in the valleys again. Snow will fall from 1300 to 1700 meters, probably 20 to 40 centimeters, with the weather models focusing on the French Alps on Monday and southeastern Switzerland and the Italian province of Lombardy on Tuesday morning. Only 10 to 15 cm is expected in the Dolomites.
Strong percipitation returning from the west on Wednesday and Thursday
The Genoa low will move to Eastern Europe on Tuesday, but two new secondary disturbances will follow from the west. The centers will remain west and north of the Alps, returning to the usual pattern this winter with precipitation mainly on the W/NW side, the familiar strip from the French Alps to Vorarlberg. The base in many French and Swiss areas above 2000 meters can significantly increase. At these heights, up to a meter of snow may fall between now and Friday. Lower down, rain will occur again, and in the French Alps, the snow line may even rise to 2300 meters on Wednesday.
Posibly colder from Friday, then stabilization
The average frost line in the ensembles of the major weather models will drop to around 1000 meters by the end of next week. Before the new high-pressure area likely brings stabilization from next weekend, snow may fall to low levels on Friday. The calculations vary widely however, with both wintry and mild outcomes possible in the long term.