Snow for the Southwestern Alps with a Retour d’Est setup! But, to get straight to the point: don’t take the amounts in our forecast too literally this time, as they seem likely to be considerably lower.
Weak Retour d’Est
At the moment, we’re seeing light to moderate snowfall in the Southern Alps. This is related to a low-pressure system over the Mediterranean that is slowly moving north and thus having more of an impact on the Southern Alps. The snow is mainly focused on the Southwestern Alps, with less activity in the Dolomites. There, it will be more about isolated snow showers passing through over the coming days.
Our forecast shows a lot of snow. In my opinion, way too much, as most weather models are showing significantly less. Retour d’Est situations often bring surprises, but I don’t expect to see a metre snow accumulation at higher altitudes. I’m expecting up to half a meter of snow in the stau regions of Piemonte, and even those amounts won’t be reached everywhere. On top of that, the lack of base in many resorts in this region is another issue.
The first snow will fall from today until Monday evening. The heaviest snow will occur between Aosta and the Alpi Marittime, with 10 to 30 centimeters expected. The snowline will be around (and during heavy snowfall, well below) 1000 meters. With a southwesterly flow, some extra snow is expected on Wednesday.
Changeable weather ahead?
Until Tuesday, the rest of the Alps will remain mostly dry, but after that, Atlantic depressions will be knocking on the door. First, with a southwesterly flow in the afternoon and evening on Tuesday, snow (and rain) will arrive for the Southwestern Alps. On the French side, temperatures in the outer alpine regions will rise faster than in the inner Alps and Piemonte, causing the snowline there to rise to 1800-2000 meters. The snowline will also rise slightly on the Italian side on Wednesday.
A transition to a more changeable phase (especially on the (north)western side) seems likely with the upcoming depression activity, but it’s still not very convincing. The ensemble for Geneva, representative of the Northwestern Alps, shows this. A temporary cold front with snow will pass through the middle of next week, after which temperatures will quickly rise again. Precipitation signals will remain present later in the week, but with relatively high temperatures, the snowline might be an issue. Additionally, a major dump of snow is not in sight just yet.
Replies
Sheesh…really would like a nice shot of snow for the Dolomites first week in Feb. Any signs of that?
Where would you reccomend to go for a long weekend from Wednesday the 22nd? La Thuile or Madesimo? Or anywhere else?
Where would you reccomend to go for a long weekend from Wednesday the 22nd? La Thuile or Madesimo? Or anywhere else?
jonnoyo - 19 Jan 2025 21:00
I’ll be heading to La Thuile on the 22nd. But this is more luck than design. How’s it looking Henri?
Where would you reccomend to go for a long weekend from Wednesday the 22nd? La Thuile or Madesimo? Or anywhere else?
jonnoyo - 19 Jan 2025 23:00
Sheesh…really would like a nice shot of snow for the Dolomites first week in Feb. Any signs of that?
cdtakacs1 - 19 jan 2025 19:41
There are some signs of snowfall for end of January in the EC ensemble, but it’s still far ahead and not convincing.
@jonnoyo Madesimo has a very thin or sometimes even lacking base, so not ideal at the moment. Not much fresh snow there.
La Thuile will be a bit better in terms of base, but don’t expect dream conditions. It was just a dusting of snow there today. The snowline on Wednesday evening could become an issue, although I think La Thuile is in a quite favourable inneralpine location. It can be quite windy higher up as well during this snowfall.
Any info for the 2nd week of February for the french Alps? Or is it way to ahead to predict anything?