We end this mostly warm and dry October month in the Alps with a bang. The snow forecast shows some red clours again, so we can expect a lot of snow! Right now, the first phase is already underway. Later this week, a storm depression named Ciarán is going to dominate the weather across much of Europe, possibly causing nuisance. In the Alps, it will be stormy, with snowfall as well.
Enjoying the golden autumn
In recent weeks, snow phases in the Alps remained limited. Even higher up, there is not much snow at the moment. Moreover, recent föhn episodes have blown away some of the snow on the north side again. The ice of some glacier tongues is still exposed and snow cover is also still quite thin in the opened glacier ski areas.
On the other hand, it was glorious hiking weather. In the valleys, the deciduous trees are now colourful and higher up, the larches are also insanely beautiful at the moment. These are perfect conditions to prepare for the new winter season with a hike or trailrun.
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On Saturday, I walked the Ziroger Höhenweg in South Tyrol, near the Brenner Pass. In the last century, there were still two ski resorts here on the Italian side of the Brenner, Zirog and Hühnerspiel. The latter closed its lifts in 1991. Since then, it has been a paradise for tour skiers. The Hühnerspielhütte is still open in winter. The western slopes of the two LSAP’s (Lost Ski Area Projects) are very suitable for an easy skitour, but Hühnerspiel in particular is quite sensitive to the wind.
High snowline first
Back to the weather! So at the moment, with a cold front, the first snow follows from the west. In the western and southern Alps, it has been raining for a while, with snow from 2700 - 3000 metres, but now cooler air starts flowing in from the west. In France and Switzerland tonight and tonight, the snowline drops rapidly towards 2000 metres. Now we see on the webcams of Les Menuires and Tignes, among others, that the snowline has already dropped to around 2500 metres. Here, locally, 30-40 centimetres could fall above 3000 metres.
In Austria, the föhn flow weakened during the evening. Initially, the zero degree limit is still around 3000 metres. Here it will still rain for a while up to 2800 - 3000 metres. Tonight (Monday to Tuesday) the cold front approaches from the west, which will also lower the snowline here to around 1500 metres altitude on Tuesday morning. The glacier areas can benefit well from this, with possibly up to 50 centimetres in the high mountains of the Ötztaler and Stubaier Alps. How much will fall below 2500-2800 metres depends on the timing of the cold air flowing in. During the cold front passage, I expect strong wind gusts with possible thunderstorms and graupel as well.
In the southern Alps, on the other hand, it will stay warmer for even longer with a southerly flow. The high precipitation amounts, again locally accompanied by thunderstorms, combined with a high snowline (around 2800 metres) could cause local flooding and landslides. Up to and including tomorrow morning, 100 to maybe even 150 millimetres of rain could fall in the southern valley areas. Only towards the end of this precipitation phase does the snowline here also temporarily dip below 2000 metres.
Some snow showers tomorrow
Behind the cold front, the north-west Alps in particular will remain in a cool, moist flow with some snow showers tomorrow. Snow will fall from around 1500 - 1800 metres altitude, but I do not expect much more than 5-10 centimetres. A high-pressure area temporarily takes over the reigns, allowing it to stay dry and clear up almost everywhere during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday. Still, this dry phase is only short-lived.
Wednesday afternoon and evening, a new (weak) cold front from the west will bring some snow during the day, with again several centimetres of snow in France, Italy and western Switzerland. On the northern side, an increasing föhn setting will keep it dry.
Storm Ciarán
From Thursday, much of Europe will be under the spell of Storm Ciarán. With an expected core pressure of around 955 hPa over England on Thursday, it seems likely that this storm could cause a lot of severe weather in western Europe. A very strong jet stream will ensure the rapid development of this storm depression over the Atlantic Ocean, which means we will face a huge wind field around its core (England, France and possibly the Benelux countries) with wind gusts of up to 150 kilometres per hour. Some models are currently even calculating wind speeds of 180 to 200 kilometres per hour off the coast of France. The combination of the high wind speeds and the trees still in leaf could cause (huge) inconvenience.
Storm Ciarán will also be felt in the Alps. A south-westerly flow increases the pressure gradient over the Alps, once again giving us a southföhn situation in the Northern Alps. A new cold front will again bring snow and cooling from the west. This again involves amounts of 20-40 centimetres above 2500 metres in the Western Alps. In the process, the snowline drops from 2,500 metres to around or even below 1,500 metres.
Cold air reaches the Mediterranean, which will cause cyclogenesis, resulting in the development of a Genoa depression. Once again, very large amounts of rain could fall, especially the south-eastern Alps. Here, 100 to 200 millimetres is possible (and even more is not entirely out of the question). The further east, the higher the snowline will be. Further west (Dolomites/Lombardy), the snowline will be between 2,000 and 2,400 metres. The areas around the Alpine main ridge can (after the second föhn phase Thursday during the day) again benefit considerably from this setting.
Third föhn phase over the weekend
On Friday, it will continue snowing, especially in Austria and the Dolomites, with a snowline that could be at around 1000 - 1500 metres altitude. Deep wintry, in other words! But behind it, a strong south föhn setting seems to develop again for the weekend, potentially leading to many lift closures in the glacier ski areas. The high wind speeds could cause quite a bit of snow displacement. More on this later this week!
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Finallyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy!
In Vorarlberg, the snowline is now dropping below 2000 metres. In the southern Alps and around the Alpine main ridge currently very high precipitation rates (locally >15mm/h). Around Brenner 70mm within 6 hours, but still warm. Freezing level in the Ötztaler and Stubaier Alps around 2400 metres at the moment.
https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/15/82b3fb67f7c27ed6e57a862647c78886_pluvio24.png?width=800\
Very large precipitation totals (24h) in South Tyrol. As expected, due to high temperatures the situation is critical. The access road to Sulden is currently closed due to a landslide. The strongest precipitation will move eastward now.
https://cdn.wepowder.com/site/forum/15/fde89ec7c460e05326057a121cb71ee7_stelvio.jpg?width=800\
😍Henri op 31 Oct 2023 15:45
Nice, at least you can make some pow moves but not yet snowboard, still it’s not deep and dangerous