Spring conditions, but increasingly changeable next week

Spring conditions, but increasingly changeable next week
Increasing high clouds from the west today (Oberstdorf, foto-webcam.eu)
Increasing high clouds from the west today (Oberstdorf, foto-webcam.eu)

We have had several warm spring days without precipitation. The temperatures rose to around 15 to 20 degrees in many lower regions and it was also very mild higher up, with some additional warming by the föhn on the northern side. Today during the day, we saw more and more high clouds moving in. It is an omen for a temporary and short-lived weather change without too much impact. Next week too, it will remain mild, but at the same time the chances of some more changeable weather seem to increase markedly.

In this weather report:

  • Some snow tomorrow
  • Persistently soft, some precipitation on the north side
  • Late next week cooling off?

Some snow tomorrow

After increasing high clouds from the west, some precipitation follows already tonight. In the process, we will get rid of the warm air masses of recent days, but it won’t get really cold. During the day tomorrow, the Western and Northern Alps should expect showers with a snowline of around 1,600 to 1,800 metres. In the higher regions of the French Northern Alps, approximately 10 centimetres can fall, but for the rest of the Northwest Alps I do not expect more than a few centimetres. In Austria, precipitation seems to be limited mainly to the northern edge.

Due to temporary air pressure increase, the sun returns everywhere during Monday. In Austria, the remnants of the precipitation should still move away in the morning and it will remain cloudy for a bit longer, but from the west and in the inner-alpine areas it will clear up quickly here too. It will not be cold; the zero degree limit will hover around 2,000 metres.

The jet stream is zonal and quite far north by the end of the week (meteociel.fr)
The jet stream is zonal and quite far north by the end of the week (meteociel.fr)

Persistently mild - some precipitation on the north side later in the week

The rest of the week will also be fairly mild with Tuesday initially still sunny, but increasing high clouds move in from the west. In the afternoon, there may be some showers in the north-west Alps, but this too will not bring much.

Looking at the jet stream, we see a strengthening with a more zonal pattern developing in the following days, with the Alps remaining on the warm side. The jet stream is too far north, but close enough for precipitation in the Alps. Precise precipitation amounts I cannot yet give at the moment, but the snowline is very likely to be around 2000 metres again initially. Possibly temperatures on the north side could drop again by the weekend.

GFS and ECMWF ensembles for Geneva grid point (wetterzentrale.de)

Late next week some further cooling?

In the ensembles we see that most members are going for a cooling from next weekend, but how exactly this will happen and with what timing is still hard to say. For instance, the ECMWF already shows a cooling well before the weekend, while the GFS, on the contrary, only gives cold air more of a chance from Sunday onwards. Whether this will also be accompanied by some decent snowfall is not yet entirely certain, but at least it is interesting to keep an eye on. The precipitation signal is quite decent.

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melkormproAuthor18 March 2023 · 20:13

Thanks ❤️

pmudry75@gmail.comAuthor22 March 2023 · 08:57

Hi Henri, when will we get the next forecast?

It’s looking pretty good from what I am reading elsewhere!!

HenriAuthor22 March 2023 · 09:46


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